女主播mangent(CGTN主播解读：十月惊奇真能“左右”美国大选吗？)

In American politics, an October surprise is a news event taking place weeks before a November election that can be shocking, sensational, and sometimes scandalous.

在美国政治中，十月惊奇是指在十一月大选前几周发生的，具有轰动效果的新闻事件，有时也可能是丑闻。

It can be engineered by opponents or happen spontaneously.

该事件可能由竞选双方策划，也可能自然发生。

Yes, it is a U.S. tradition for observers to look out for October surprises but the ques-tion is: can an October surprise really change the course of the race? Or is it just media hype reinforcing the inevitable?

是的，观察人士关注十月惊奇是美国的传统。但问题是：十月惊奇真的能改变大选进程吗？还是只是媒体对必然事件的炒作渲染？

You probably remember October 2016, when a recording dating back from 2005 was leaked, where Donald Trump bragged about his way with women.

大家或许还记得，2016年10月曾有一份2005年的录音流出，唐纳德∙特朗普在录音中吹嘘他和女人的相处之道。

U.S. President Donald Trump:"You know I'm automatically attracted to beauti-ful—I just start kissing them. It's like a magnet. Just kiss. I don't even wait. And when you're a star, they let you do it. You can do anything"

美国总统唐纳德∙特朗普：“你知道，我会很自然地被漂亮的女人吸引，然后开始亲吻她们。就像磁铁一样,直接亲。我甚至连等都不等。如果你是名人，她们就会允许你这么做。你想干什么都行。”

Many Republicans withdrew their endorsement for Trump and several women came forward and accused Trump of sexual assault.

当时，很多共和党人都撤回了对特朗普的支持，还有几位女性站出来指控特朗普性侵犯。

One would think this was the end Trump's campaign, but apparently Trump voters had other things in mind and went ahead to elect him anyway.

有人认为特朗普的竞选之路将就此止步，但其支持者显然关心的是别的问题，依然选择为他投票。

During the 2012 election, an audio secretly recorded at a private fundraiser was leaked, where Republican nominee Mitt Romney sounded like he doesn’t care much about ordinary people.

2012年竞选中，一场私人资金募集活动的秘密录音被曝光。其中，共和党候选人米特·罗姆尼听起来并不太关心普通人。

Former U.S. presidential candidate Mitt Romney: "There are 47 percent of the people who will vote for the president no matter what. There are 47 percent who are with him, who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe the government has responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you-name-it...My job is not to worry about those people."

前美国总统候选人米特·罗姆尼：“有47%的人无论如何都会给总统投票。有47%的人支持他。他们依赖政府，觉得自己是受害者，认为政府有责任照顾他们，相信自己有资格享受医保和获得食物、住房，诸如此类……我的工作并不是替这些人担心。”

This clip strengthened the Democrats' narrative that Romney and his party represent the wealthy, not the common man. Romney lost the race.

这段音频证实了民主党的说法，即罗姆尼和他所在的政党代表着富裕阶层，而非普通大众。罗姆尼输掉了大选。

But some analysts believe Hurricane Sandy was the bigger October surprise that year which made Obama look presidential. And many others say, given the state of post-crisis economic recovery and his approval ratings at the time, Obama would have won anyway.

但一些分析人士认为，飓风“桑迪”是那一年更大的十月惊奇。在这场飓风中，奥巴马表现得更像总统。还有很多人说，考虑到金融危机后的经济复苏情况和支持率，奥巴马无论如何都会胜出。

There were other personal scandals made into October surprises out there, from reve-lations that George W.Bush was caught drunk driving decades earlier to allegations that Obama's half-aunt was an illegal immigrant in Boston. Again, they were great media stories, but none of them fundamentally changed the course of the race.

除此之外，还有很多聚焦候选人个人丑闻的十月惊奇。比如，有爆料称乔治∙W∙布什几十年前因酒驾被抓，还有奥巴马的姑妈是居住在波士顿的非法移民，等等。同样，这些事件都被媒体竞相报道，但没有一个从根本上改变了竞选进程。

It was the October surprises on national security issues that turned out to be more consequential.

与国家安全问题相关的十月惊奇则影响更大。

During the 1980 presidential election, the Iran hostage crisis was front and center.

1980年的总统竞选期间，伊朗人质危机是焦点。

President Carter hoped to secure the release of American hostages before the election but on October 21 Iran suddenly declared that the hostages would not be released before November. Iran continued to hold 52 Americans hostage, releasing them minutes after Ronald Reagan’s inaugural speech in January 1981.

卡特总统希望在大选日前确保美国人质得到释放。但10月21日，伊朗突然宣布不会在11月之前释放人质。52名美国人质一直被伊朗扣留并于1981年1月罗纳德∙里根发表就职演讲后不到一小时内获释。

Some claimed that the Reagan team had made a secret deal with the Iranians to delay the release of hostages on a promise that Reagan would sell arms to Iran. Congres-sional investigations found no evidence of such a conspiracy. Yet a few high-profile figures, including former Iranian President Abolhassan Banisadr, still believe to this day that there was a secret deal.

有些人说，里根团队和伊朗达成了秘密协议，拖延人质释放时间，交换条件是里根向伊朗出售武器。但国会调查却没有发现任何支持这一阴谋论的证据。然而，包括伊朗前总统阿布哈桑·巴尼萨德在内的一些知名人士至今仍认为存在秘密交易。

In the 1972 election, the deeply unpopular Vietnam War was the main issue.

1972年竞选期间，民众强烈反对的越南战争是主要议题。

The Nixon White House scheduled a press conference for October 26 to announce that the unpopular Vietnam War was coming to an end. Yet on October 22, things fell apart: South Vietnam told Nixon they would not accept the agreement, and North Vi-etnam got upset and publicly accused the United States of double-dealing.

尼克松政府计划在10月26日召开记者招待会，宣布饱受反对的越战即将结束。但10月22日，形势发生变化：南越方面向尼克松表示不会接受协议，北越因此十分不满并公开谴责美国搞两面派。

The Nixon administration held the scheduled press conference anyway, and famously proclaimed that "peace is at hand." The announcement pushed Nixon further ahead in the polls, and later to victory, despite the realty that peace was NOT at hand and the Vietnam War would continue for another two-and-a-half years.

尼克松政府仍然如期召开了记者招待会, 宣称“和平近在咫尺”。这样的声明让尼克松在民调中进一步领先，随后赢得大选。然而事实是，和平并非近在咫尺，越战又持续了两年半。

If you think misinformation is bad, consider disinformation.

如果你觉得错误信息很糟糕，那么想想虚假信息。

In the 1880 U.S. presidential election, a New York newspaper fabricated a letter pur-portedly written by Republican nominee James Garfield, voicing support for Chinese immigrants to the U.S. The Democrats quickly distributed half a million copies of the letter.

1880年的美国总统竞选中，一家纽约报纸炮制了一封据称是共和党候选人詹姆斯∙加菲尔德写的信，发声支持中国移民赴美。民主党迅速分发出50万份信件副本。

This couldn't have come at a worse time as there was widespread xenophobia among white Americans who are fearful of losing jobs to Chinese laborers. And both parties had endorsed restrictions on Chinese immigration.

这件事发生的时机简直是糟得不能再糟了。当时，美国白人普遍存在仇外心态，害怕被中国劳工抢走工作，而且两党都支持限制中国移民。

The scandal hurt Garfiled politically. What was supposed to be a clear Republican victory became a close race. Garfield beat his opponent by only 0.02 percentage points in the popular vote, and he lost California, the state most affected by Chinese immigration.

这一丑闻对加菲尔德造成了政治上的打击。原本胜局已定的共和党逐渐失去优势。加菲尔德最终仅凭0.02个百分点击败对手，而且丢掉了受中国移民影响最大的加利福尼亚州。

As you can see, an October surprise is more often than not a manufactured media event, a political trick launched by rival campaigns to sway elections. It is meant to be a game-changer but empirical evidence shows that oftentimes it is so deliberately cre-ated and intentionally timed, so that voters simply aren’t bothered by it very much.

由此可见，十月惊奇更多的是媒体制造的新闻事件，是竞选双方为左右民意而采用的政治手段。十月惊奇的本意是改变选情，但实践证明，由于议题的曝光如此蓄意、发布时间如此刻意，很多选民已经不把它太当回事了。

Now all eyes are on election 2020 to see what sort of October surprises may be in store.

目前，各方都在关注2020年大选，想要看看这次会发生怎样的十月惊奇。